Viktor Orban's dilemma - Russian oil or Trump's favour

October 28, 2025

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban faces a diplomatic challenge as his close ally Donald Trump pressures Hungary to abandon Russian oil imports, undermining Orban's domestic political strategy ahead of April elections where he trails in polls. Orban had been planning a Trump-Putin peace summit in Budapest that was recently cancelled, which would have bolstered his international credentials before the vote. Hungary currently receives 80% of its oil through Russia's Druzhba pipeline, and Orban has campaigned on promises of "cheap Russian energy," making a policy reversal politically costly.

Who is affected

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his government
Hungarian voters and consumers
The Hungarian oil company MOL
Slovak oil company Slovnaft (run by MOL)
US President Donald Trump and his administration
Russian President Vladimir Putin
Opposition Tisza party leader Peter Magyar
Pope Leo (Francis)
Czech Prime Minister Petr Fialla and Czech Republic
Croatian company Janaf
US Vice-President JD Vance
Matt Whitaker, US ambassador to NATO

What action is being taken

Trump is pressuring Hungary and Slovakia to end their dependence on Russian oil
The US has imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies Lukoil and Rosneft
Orban is scheduled to meet with Trump in Washington next week
MOL is quietly changing its technology to adapt refineries
Ukrainian forces are conducting drone attacks on the Druzhba pipeline
Orban is campaigning for re-election promising "cheap Russian energy"
The US is promising help to Hungary and Croatia to facilitate the energy transition

Why it matters

This situation matters because it represents a significant test of the US-Hungary alliance and Trump's ability to pressure even close allies on strategic issues related to Russia. Orban's dependence on Russian energy has been central to his political identity and electoral strategy, and a forced pivot would undermine his campaign narrative of independence from Brussels and close ties with Moscow. The outcome will influence not only Hungary's April elections but also broader European energy security, the effectiveness of sanctions pressure on Russia, and the credibility of Hungary's claims that it cannot survive without Russian energy supplies. It also demonstrates the limits of Orban's influence within MAGA circles when his interests conflict with Trump's geopolitical objectives.

What's next

Orban will meet with Trump in Washington next week to attempt to ease US pressure until after Hungary's April election
Trump will urge Orban to demonstrate political will to transition away from Russian oil supplies
The US has promised to provide assistance to Hungary and Croatia to facilitate the energy infrastructure transition
Orban insists the Trump-Putin summit will still happen at some point, though timing is uncertain
Hungary faces the April election where Orban is currently trailing in polls

Read full article from source: BBC